The Blossoming of the Red Sox Young Starting Pitchers and the Looming Problem Their Youth Presents
By Brady Mourgenos
July 21, 2026
(Photo by Daniel Bartel/Getty Images)
After an all-time terrible start to the 2026 MLB season, the Boston Red Sox have miraculously found themselves in the playoff hunt in the midst of a 14-game winning streak. Their historic run is now tied for the 2nd-longest winning streak in franchise history and has placed them firmly in the third American League Wild Card spot with a little less than two weeks until the trade deadline on August 3. The seemingly impossible turnaround has been driven by the one strength this Red Sox team has displayed throughout the entirety of the 2026 season: starting pitching.
Since the streak began on July 3, the Red Sox starting rotation has pitched to a 2.63 ERA with 76 strikeouts across 72 innings and produced 7 quality starts. There have also only been two instances of a starter allowing 4 earned runs or more during this stretch. Jake Bennett, in particular, has been a revelation not only during the winning streak, but since he debuted back on May 1. He’s gone 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA and 13 strikeouts over his 20.2 innings during the recent hot streak, outpitching his veteran teammate and Cy Young hopeful, Sonny Gray. Second-year pitcher Payton Tolle has also looked good despite an underwhelming 5-6 record on the season as he’s pitched to a 3.31 ERA with 96 strikeouts over 89.1 innings.
However, that 89.1 innings number is incredibly significant because when combined with the 15 innings he threw in the minor leagues before being recalled on April 23, Tolle is just 3.2 innings from reaching his total innings pitched from last year of 108. The Red Sox have already begun limiting his innings as evidenced by his piggyback start with Brayan Bello vs. the Mets the day before the All-Star break. Connelly Early was 28 innings away from reaching his workload from last season before heading to the IL with elbow inflammation on July 1. Jake Bennett has already surpassed his career high in innings.
With more than 2 months to go in the regular season, the Red Sox are in a difficult position as they will need to begin managing their young starters’ workloads to keep them from overextending so early into their careers. The Pittsburgh Pirates treated Paul Skenes with kid gloves during his first season, routinely managing pitch counts to keep him below or as close to 90 pitches as possible. They also worked in an extra day of rest frequently throughout his rookie year, which allowed him to pitch on a schedule that more closely aligned with his college career. The Milwaukee Brewers’ young flamethrower, Jacob Misiorowski, has seen his workload drop drastically in the last month from short starts to a missed All-Star Game appearance that allowed him to rest and recover from some early season arm fatigue. Based on these trends as well as the typical philosophy for young starters not to exceed their prior year’s workload by more than 30 innings, it would be a shock to see Tolle or Bennett each pitch more than 35 additional innings throughout the rest of the 2026 season.
This workload dilemma leaves the Red Sox in an interesting spot as they approach the trade deadline. While the lineup has seen improvements over the last month, highlighted by Willson Contreras continuing his career year and Caleb Durbin’s .894 OPS since June 1, which has turned him into one of the most successful hitters in MLB, the Sox lineup still ranks around league average in most categories. The team still has yet to completely replace the consistent production and ceiling of Rafael Devers in the year since he was traded and that lack of a second premium bat was a major part of the struggles the team saw over the first 3 months.
Based on recent reports from Jeff Passan, it looks as if there will be no shortage of great hitters available at the upcoming trade deadline with so many teams falling well short of their preseason expectations almost two-thirds of the way through the year. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow will seemingly have a plethora of options to choose from as he looks to add at least the premium bat the Sox have been missing and potentially more. However, as their young starters approach and pass their career highs in innings, adding a pitcher may become much more important to getting through the season than adding a bat would be.
While the winning streak has been nothing short of incredible and a nice change of pace for the team’s fans and certainly for Craig Breslow who had people calling for his firing as recently as the end of June, it also poses questions about the team’s realistic goals for this season and the future with a potential lockout looming in 2027. Will the team be willing to add salary before a 2027 season that may be shortened? Does the current lineup have the juice to make a serious postseason run if the deadline plays out similar to previous years and the bat you end up getting back after the deadline is just a healthy Roman Anthony returning from an extended IL stint? Or if they do add a Hunter Goodman or a Zach Neto, will they have the pitching depth to get through the season with a likely limit of 30-40 more innings in store for Tolle and Bennett?
If the recent hot streak is to be believed in, then adding at least one bat and a pitcher is absolutely necessary if the Sox want to make it back to the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time since the 2017-2018 seasons, but how do you balance those expectations with the potential player and prospect capital that will surely be needed to acquire those kinds of assets? It’s also worth noting that while their incredible July has finally gotten the team back over .500 and into the playoff picture, a regression to the mean by some of the hitters on unsustainable hot streaks, combined with the workload management of some of your best pitchers, could place them right back where they were before the All-Star break. That regression could make holding onto players like Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman, who each could likely fetch you multiple top 100 prospects or established big leaguers, a massive missed opportunity that could burn the organization in the future, especially if their own highly touted prospects like Franklin Arias or Anthony Eyanson are moved. Craig Breslow has a tall task in front of him as he looks to balance giving this team a shot to compete both this year and for years to come, so it is essential to assess this team’s realistic expectations and ceiling as impartially as possible.